COVID-19: MCI researchers discuss risk management

After the first peak of the COVID 19 crisis, which Austria has weathered far better than expected in terms of health aspects, it is now a matter of managing the disease and our everyday lives, especially until suitable vaccines and medicines are available. To quote the famous image of Tomas Pueyo, the hammer is followed by the dance phase, which is implemented in Austria by a largely shutdown of public and social life. Experts all over the country, including researchers from the CSHI (Center for Social & Health Innovation) established at the MCI, are looking at how this transition to the "new normal" could be shaped. The focus of the deliberations at the MCI is an effective knowledge-based communication model that should replace or at least complement the previous crisis communication at the national level.

The discussion receives prominent support from the contributions of public health expert Martin Sprenger, with whom the MCI conducted a series of MCI WEBINARES with the participation of numerous experts during the difficult first pandemic phase in March and April. The online lectures were held under the motto "Strategies against COVID-19 in Austria". All participants in the discussion agreed that a well-designed transition from crisis management to risk management is needed. A good risk management system should be characterised by an efficient dialogue involving the regional and local level. Siegfried Walch, initiator of the discussion at the MCI, explains: "Regardless of considerations such as a Corona app, for example, we need a risk dialogue that continuously integrates current experience and scientific findings and - in the spirit of our democratic system - follows both a top-down and a bottom-up approach."

This risk management system should also be characterised by easy-to-understand, effective communication. Discussions are currently focusing on a so-called "Corona traffic light", a generally understandable concept that could form the basis of communication with the public. The Complexity Science Hub at the Medical University of Vienna has already published such a traffic light system at the suggestion of Martin Sprenger. Red means the highest risk level with extensive protective measures, green stands for low risk with the greatest possible freedom of action, and in between is yellow, a phase in which increased caution is called for. The values assigned to the exemplary traffic light are chosen arbitrarily for the time being. Based on clear objectives such as ensuring medical care, they would have to be worked out in a risk dialogue with experts from different disciplines and ultimately determined politically. Such a refined traffic light could then be the basis for risk management at local and regional level. Siegfried Walch: "If we involve the mayors of this country and, through them, the managers in companies, in schools and in all other organisations in risk management, we can succeed in dealing with the virus in changing danger situations."

In this ongoing risk dialogue, courses of action and behaviour are thus to be developed for the respective risk levels. In addition to general instructions for the general population and information for risk groups, rules for social and health care institutions, but also instructions for action for various public areas such as transport, companies, cultural institutions and authorities will be further developed.

Following the work of the avalanche warning service, the risk dialogue could be conducted with legally anchored pandemic commissions at the local level or at least at the district level. By shifting to the local and regional level, it could be ensured that areas that are currently hardly affected can largely go about their daily lives as normal and would therefore hardly be affected by the negative impacts of any protective measures.

Martin Sprenger's appeal is urgent: "We will never again deal with virus threats as calmly as we did before Corona. The next virus season is coming up in autumn; it can be assumed that, in addition to flu and cold viruses, COVID-19 viruses will also be in the basket. The good thing is that we have time to prepare." However, the clock is already ticking and building risk management structures cannot wait until autumn.